This is the beginning of a new series ranking the season’s top ten teams. The criteria used for these rankings are considered collectively, without assigning specific weights:
- Team Record
- Net Rating (Point Differential Per 100 Possessions)
- SRS (Combination of Strength of Schedule and Net Rating (Found Under Advanced Stats)
- Sprinkle of where teams are trending
We’re just approaching the halfway point of the season. While a few things have gone as predicted, many surprises have made ranking teams challenging. My approach is to evaluate each team’s performance based on the criteria listed, considering both quantitative data and recent trends. With this in mind, here are my top ten teams so far this season.
Honorable Mentions: Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers
10. Los Angeles Lakers
Up first, we have a team whose record is much better than the team actually is. Sure, 20-10 is great. However, they are also 25th in defense, and their starting five metrics are dead last in the league. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have been awesome this year, and LeBron has been playing much better than he did when he first got back, but if they don’t trade for another “Three and D” specialist at the trade deadline, they will have a pretty low ceiling come playoff time.
9. Orlando Magic
Next, we have a team that is quite difficult to rank. On the one hand, they have been pretty banged up, but they have been finding a way to produce a good number of wins. They are also in the top ten in SRS. On the other hand, it seems they are experiencing a bit of an identity crisis.
Many people have expected Paolo Banchero to emerge as one of the best players in the league by now, but he has not shown significant improvement, and the Magic technically play better when he is off the court. I think the Magic have a higher ceiling with Paolo than without him, but if I were them, I would consider trading him while his stock is high.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are a team that it seems like a lot of people do not have too high expectations for. This is weird since they have made the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons. Even though they have not been a top two team in the West this year, they have still been super solid. They are top ten in both offense and defense and eighth in net rating and SRS. This might seem low for a team with a lot of playoff success in the past couple of seasons, but I think the true test for them will be after the regular season ends.
7. Boston Celtics
Here we have one of the biggest surprises in the league. Personally, I thought losing Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford would be detrimental enough to have the Celtics drop down to a play-in team. However, they seem to have other plans. Jaylen Brown is looking like a top ten player, and the scraps they picked up through free agency and the draft have been super solid. I think this team’s ceiling without Tatum is relatively low, but they deserve their flowers for how they have played.
6. Houston Rockets
Now we have one of the weirdest teams in the league. The Rockets are second in offense, seventh in defense, and second in net rating and SRS. With that being said, they are only 19-10 and fifth in the West. Last year, they were a young and fun team that found a way to be the two seed in the West. However, after trading for Kevin Durant, anything less than a competitive Western Conference Finals would be looked at as a disappointment, and it will be interesting to see how they perform the rest of the season.
5. New York Knicks
Despite winning the NBA Cup, it feels like the Knicks have still been playing pretty under the radar this year. They are third in offense, fourth in net rating, and fifth in SRS. Most fans probably have the Knicks coming out of the East. Frankly, that’s not a bad take at all. However, there are multiple teams in the East who are looking pretty solid, and it should be a dog fight.
4. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been very quietly one of the best teams in the league this year. Though facing many injuries, they are still first in offense, and third in net rating and SRS. This is for two reasons: Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. I am probably oversimplifying when I say that, but the fact of the matter is that Jokic is playing somehow better than he was last year, and Murray is playing the best regular-season basketball of his career. When those two guys are rolling, I am not sure if there is any team in the league that can stop them.
3. Detroit Pistons
I’m someone who was very high on the Pistons entering the season. My thought process was that they were a young team, the sixth seed last year, and three teams ahead of them in the standings lost a key player, so they would naturally get better. However, they have been better than I could have ever predicted. People will say that they have had the easiest schedule in the league so far, but they have taken care of business. Though I probably will not take them to come out of the East, they deserve their flowers.
2. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have been playing awesome basketball this year, particularly in the past few weeks. The sample size is small, but this is the first time we are seeing Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox play together since Fox was traded to the Spurs. This season, they have a 17.8 net rating when the two are on the floor together. The Spurs are looking as good as any team in basketball. The thought of them looking this good before Wembanayama hits his prime is a scary thought.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
People might question whether I should put OKC behind San Antonio due to head-to-head matchups, and I understand that. However, the fact of the matter is that against every other team, OKC is one of the most dominant teams we have ever seen. If San Antonio catches up to them in the standings, we might have different conversations. But for now, OKC is the best team in basketball.
Conclusion:
This season has been full of surprises, and we have not even made it to the new year yet. Who knows how chaotic the rest of the season will be? Only time will tell, and we’ll keep monitoring this every two weeks.